Crypto Short

SMA100 forms the top resistance, which is with time growing and becoming a mammoth target. SMA200 holds; median line of the set pitch form i.e. 0.5 also holds and aligns with SMA200 . In coming 20hrs, SMA200 support may get retested (@ 8860 ). MACD is still entering the buying zone. Bearish continuation until a rebound above 8860. If breached, very likely, next test will be 6k previously called as provisional bottom. A closeup view of the chart. Notice that we are still away from the subjective fib time zone prediction, which is about 4bars/16hr away for a swing or change in trend. Typically, this fib time zone extension has been helping to time the price swing in short-term trading. We shall discard this when it becomes unpredictable.

SMA50 ; SMA100 ; SMA150 ; SMA200 March 06, 2018 records another downward shift of BTC after recovering +30% and setting a consolidation phase. This obviously increases worrying sign for Hodlers and even traders. By looking at the simple moving average (SMA) curves of 50, 100, 150, 200 days it is evident that low volume trades may result into a huge price decline or even a death cross as annotated in the figure above. Nothing certain yet. The only way to over come this is to add new fresh meal i.e. new money into the market. If new investors get attracted, more positive volume influx will be included, which may yield a significant breakout above 13000 to consider BTC being bullish. At the time of writing, BTC is considered in consolidation phase as long as it trades between ~8200 to ~12000. Crypto Short

Something for bulls who are waiting for a long-term turn back.  March 6, 2018 pullback was predictable through Fib Time Zone Extension, which may have +/-1 days of an error. Now this zone has been confirmed. Next swing Fib level is 13 i.e. March 26, 2018 (+/- 2 days). Despite the major drop BTC remains bullish. Current pullback may breach through SMA150 i.e. 10391.8. This pullback should be held around the secondary strong support level (9274/9200) indicated in the chart. If failed, the next downward target will be 7826, a point where this set trend will be deflected to bearish continuation. At present, I don't see if the primary support line i.e. around 6k will be breached in coming weeks. That will be a worst scenario to happen since it will break through and the set consolidation phase will be over and a new bearish cycle will continue. For now, the primary bullish trend ranges between SMA(100,200) channel i.e. 8256 - 13056 (min, max). In this 1D chart below, you can ...

Higher lows are the point of concerns, however, we do have enough indicators throughout this consolidation phase that the price may not hold longer with this volume. Although I would love to see the price going above 12k to see more volatility but the local up-trend is converging and its support line has already been breached on 4H. See this chart: https://invst.ly/6u1rz Price volume is diverging from up-trend, Fib Time Zone, possibly indicates a trend reversal around Mar 7 (+/-1day). Plus Fib 0.382 should hold around 11281. If not, then, shorting this (below 11k) has higher chance of hitting than going long. I am ready for both trades though! Or see my ideas on TreadingView. Crypto Short

The price movement of BTC has several highs and lows. Timing the future is often unrealistic and many investors, who don't know math very well, stay away from a technical analysis. Often they totally ignore the power that such analysis may bring. Here is an example of BTC from Dec 2017 to March 2018. BTC is in fact following the golden ratio. If we would have known this before, we would be have been trading more effectively than we did in past. You can recreate such a map in your platform and then trace ahead the expected swings. I would advice to consider 5-10% error always due to news. As soon as this golden rule is broken like 15% error, you don't trade with this. While I am waiting for a breakout at 11.8, I thought to share this idea. Crypto Short

Following the higher highs and lower lows over past months, I predict an R-S junction, a point where major swing in price happens. If no new HH is formed based on previous ATHs and ATLs,  I expect the next junction again would be bearish or a short-term bearish pullback. Previously, the R-S Junction#2 was placed around Feb 21  when the price pulled back from 11.7 to 9.3 & formed a triple bottom, cup and tea pattern. However, a real breakout of Feb 21 is due and will that happen, is a million dollar question. March 29, 2018: R-S Junction Since an R-S junction (HH and LL) only defines an approximate time, the prediction of price should be based on other parameters. Assuming the continuation of on-going bullish momentum and a breakout of 11800, March 29 (+/-1 day) would be a short-term price retracement and a development of bearish trend. I would suggest reacting as per market trend and set a short if happens. This junction lies close the set Golden Ratio...

BTC Returns to its Mean Trend Bitcoin has entered into a stage where it has to decide its direction. The above figure contains several technical parameters. However, the important notes are: MA/EMA(30,10) cross-over highlighted in my previous posts has been confirmed. Major chop zone ends although small price retracement or pullbacks are going to be common. RSI(14) is neutral. MACD remains neutral as well with no obvious signal at this point. BTC returned to its mean i.e. MA150 (see MAC of 100, 200 days) suggesting a pure consolidation phase. On 4H or 1H charts, the development of cup and handle took 9-days with a trading range from 9200 - 11000 forming solid support and resistance levels. The  mean trend  of BTC has been recovered since passing the R-S junction (see my earlier post). Now the consolidation phase starts and trading here would be +/-10%. It is very likely that one may see another low or bottom, which will be an opportunity to go long aga...

March 1, 2018 Based on two Fibonacci trends (NW-SE) and N-S i.e. ATH and ATL of the past months, I managed to create a profile that has been working so good. Here is my trading plan to handle the cup's handle:   Time frame 3-days to 7-days depending on the volatility, which remains 10%.  Crypto Short

End of Feb 2018 Bitcoin showed a remarkable recovery since the beginning of Feb 2018. Yesterday's post focused on the rising limb of the on-going trend starting from the 1st week of Feb. Today, I will focus on upcoming resistance level i.e. 11000 and the formation of cup and handle pattern. The key resistance i.e. 11000 was breached only once whereas, 10800 resistance was touched several times. A strong and comprehensive break out is a must to consider the current trend as bullish. This will confirm the EMA cross overs as well that I indicated earlier. This is only possible if the current observation, posted yesterday, remains valid i.e. a cup and a handle pattern. As indicated yesterday - the price targets such as a bearish momentum on this scale - 10300 has to be breached significantly below the set Fib 0.786 level & the price has to trade around 10500 or 10600, which was the case through out the day.  Now we only need to confirm whether BTC will breach thr...

Feb 27, 2018 Update Finding Rhythm Bitcoin is finding its rhythm, which has not yet been lost. Importantly, it is at the verge of a major break through since Feb 24, 2018. Although it has broken through Fib 0.786 level on 1H chart and still holds around it. MACD on 25/50hr scale remains higher and people might be interested to short at this level and see Fib 0.618, which is apparent at this moment. MACD and STOCH-RSI at a short-term scale as well as on a week scale suggest a pullback.  Apparently the cross at TEMA/EMA 720H suggests the continuation of a narrow bullish cycle while the distance between these to is enlarging. Key Patterns 1H - Engulfing bearish and Doji Star Possible Trade Hourly RSI 61.419, STOCHRSI is oversold, & William %R is overbought. EMA200 remains 10104 whereas EMA50 remains at 10315. Short Range: 10700 - 10300 (SL Fib R3 10860) Long Range: 10700 - 11769 (Fib 1.0) Verdict Perhaps one should refrain from trading and entering...