Bitcoin: March R-S Junction

Following the higher highs and lower lows over past months, I predict an R-S junction, a point where major swing in price happens. If no new HH is formed based on previous ATHs and ATLs, I expect the next junction again would be bearish or a short-term bearish pullback.

Previously, the R-S Junction#2 was placed around Feb 21 when the price pulled back from 11.7 to 9.3 & formed a triple bottom, cup and tea pattern. However, a real breakout of Feb 21 is due and will that happen, is a million dollar question.

March 29, 2018: R-S Junction

Since an R-S junction (HH and LL) only defines an approximate time, the prediction of price should be based on other parameters.

Assuming the continuation of on-going bullish momentum and a breakout of 11800, March 29 (+/-1 day) would be a short-term price retracement and a development of bearish trend. I would suggest reacting as per market trend and set a short if happens.

This junction lies close the set Golden Ratio Trend.

The details of this chart can be followed in my following post with title:

Bitcoin: Are Bears Coming Back?

Comments

Bitcoin: The Golden Ratio

The price movement of BTC has several highs and lows. Timing the future is often unrealistic and many investors, who don't know math very well, stay away from a technical analysis. Often they totally ignore the power that such analysis may bring. Here is an example of BTC from Dec 2017 to March 2018. BTC is in fact following the golden ratio. If we would have known this before, we would be have been trading more effectively than we did in past. You can recreate such a map in your platform and then trace ahead the expected swings. I would advice to consider 5-10% error always due to news. As soon as this golden rule is broken like 15% error, you don't trade with this. While I am waiting for a breakout at 11.8, I thought to share this idea. Crypto Short

Bitcoin at 6K - Fourth time and again Price-Volume Aren't in Sync

This is the fourth time bitcoin is touching the 6K and has developed a near 5800 bottom. The price had a free-fall from 8500. However, when it came down to the 6K support, it behaved like it is close to a gravitational pull. Instead, it slows down. Take a look at the price and volume actions. Especially, the OBV and PVT. Both hold a key when it comes to the reversal pattern recoginition. When every one is bearish, you need to look at some out-of-box tools or utilities that can help you in defining a position. When we touch the support 4th time, it simply means that the support is weak. However, this doesn't mean that a rally cannot begin. Every one expects the bitcoin to reach 2K so that it comes a good buy. Ask yourself, will you buy it? Most probably not. Here is a capture of some key divergences: Regular Bullish Divergence against RSI OBV - Hidden Bullish Divergence Regular Bullish Divergence against PVT With these divergences in-hand one should think about accumul...

Bitcoin: Eyeing a Reversal Confirmation

Bitcoin is on its way to confirm the reversal pattern. Here are the series of events that happened post the longest bearish trend (50-days long). June 23 was marked as swing zone based on Fibonacci Time Extension. The next day prints a Dragonfly Doji pattern, which is traditionally a bullish sign. Attempted a panic sell situation but the price couldn't free-fall. Instead, BTC gradually dropped below 6K. Further drop could only put the CMF or volume higher resulting in a strong bullish divergence. This was also notable on the momentum indicators such as RSI. Note that we have not see so many bullish divergences of RSI in case of BTC. We have seen two major bearish divergences near psychological levels (20k, 10k). While the Awesome Oscillator shows twin peaks with some buyers strength. Here is another daily chart with other indicators. Note the swing zone 21 and the follow-up Doji. Conclusion: It is clear that the reversal pattern might b...

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