Skip to main content

Bitcoin: How Realistic the Death Cross Is?



SMA50; SMA100; SMA150; SMA200

March 06, 2018 records another downward shift of BTC after recovering +30% and setting a consolidation phase. This obviously increases worrying sign for Hodlers and even traders. By looking at the simple moving average (SMA) curves of 50, 100, 150, 200 days it is evident that low volume trades may result into a huge price decline or even a death cross as annotated in the figure above.

Nothing certain yet. The only way to over come this is to add new fresh meal i.e. new money into the market. If new investors get attracted, more positive volume influx will be included, which may yield a significant breakout above 13000 to consider BTC being bullish. At the time of writing, BTC is considered in consolidation phase as long as it trades between ~8200 to ~12000.

Crypto Short

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Bitcoin: The Golden Ratio

The price movement of BTC has several highs and lows. Timing the future is often unrealistic and many investors, who don't know math very well, stay away from a technical analysis. Often they totally ignore the power that such analysis may bring. Here is an example of BTC from Dec 2017 to March 2018. BTC is in fact following the golden ratio. If we would have known this before, we would be have been trading more effectively than we did in past. You can recreate such a map in your platform and then trace ahead the expected swings. I would advice to consider 5-10% error always due to news. As soon as this golden rule is broken like 15% error, you don't trade with this. While I am waiting for a breakout at 11.8, I thought to share this idea. Crypto Short

Bitcoin at 6K - Fourth time and again Price-Volume Aren't in Sync

This is the fourth time bitcoin is touching the 6K and has developed a near 5800 bottom. The price had a free-fall from 8500. However, when it came down to the 6K support, it behaved like it is close to a gravitational pull. Instead, it slows down. Take a look at the price and volume actions. Especially, the OBV and PVT. Both hold a key when it comes to the reversal pattern recoginition. When every one is bearish, you need to look at some out-of-box tools or utilities that can help you in defining a position. When we touch the support 4th time, it simply means that the support is weak. However, this doesn't mean that a rally cannot begin. Every one expects the bitcoin to reach 2K so that it comes a good buy. Ask yourself, will you buy it? Most probably not. Here is a capture of some key divergences: Regular Bullish Divergence against RSI OBV - Hidden Bullish Divergence Regular Bullish Divergence against PVT With these divergences in-hand one should think about accumul...

Bitcoin: Eyeing a Reversal Confirmation

Bitcoin is on its way to confirm the reversal pattern. Here are the series of events that happened post the longest bearish trend (50-days long). June 23 was marked as swing zone based on Fibonacci Time Extension. The next day prints a Dragonfly Doji pattern,   which is traditionally a bullish sign. Attempted a panic sell situation but the price couldn't free-fall. Instead, BTC gradually dropped below 6K. Further drop could only put the CMF or volume higher resulting in a strong bullish divergence. This was also notable on the momentum indicators such as RSI. Note that we have not see so many bullish divergences of RSI in case of BTC. We have seen two major bearish divergences near psychological levels (20k, 10k). While the Awesome Oscillator shows twin peaks with some buyers strength. Here is another daily chart with other indicators. Note the swing zone 21 and the follow-up Doji. Conclusion: It is clear that the reversal pattern might b...