Bitcoin: How hard is 11K for you?

Feb 27, 2018 Update

Finding Rhythm

Bitcoin is finding its rhythm, which has not yet been lost. Importantly, it is at the verge of a major break through since Feb 24, 2018. Although it has broken through Fib 0.786 level on 1H chart and still holds around it. MACD on 25/50hr scale remains higher and people might be interested to short at this level and see Fib 0.618, which is apparent at this moment. MACD and STOCH-RSI at a short-term scale as well as on a week scale suggest a pullback.

Apparently the cross at TEMA/EMA 720H suggests the continuation of a narrow bullish cycle while the distance between these to is enlarging.

Key Patterns

1H - Engulfing bearish and Doji Star

Possible Trade

Hourly

RSI 61.419, STOCHRSI is oversold, & William %R is overbought.

EMA200 remains 10104 whereas EMA50 remains at 10315.

Short Range: 10700 - 10300 (SL Fib R3 10860)

Long Range: 10700 - 11769 (Fib 1.0)

Verdict

Perhaps one should refrain from trading and entering a solid position at this moment. BTC will confirm its direction in a day or so. Mostly it depends on whether the upcoming hours candles remain stagnant around 10650 or would it touch 10888 again.

An other way to look at this is that we wait for the confirmation of cup & handle pattern today. Handle is Missing!!! If happens, we go long after the breakout. If not, then you know when to short!!!

Fresh bull entries should wait for the upper resistances to be breached between 11-12k to confirm the continuation the set trend right from Feb 5, 2018.

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Bitcoin: The Golden Ratio

The price movement of BTC has several highs and lows. Timing the future is often unrealistic and many investors, who don't know math very well, stay away from a technical analysis. Often they totally ignore the power that such analysis may bring. Here is an example of BTC from Dec 2017 to March 2018. BTC is in fact following the golden ratio. If we would have known this before, we would be have been trading more effectively than we did in past. You can recreate such a map in your platform and then trace ahead the expected swings. I would advice to consider 5-10% error always due to news. As soon as this golden rule is broken like 15% error, you don't trade with this. While I am waiting for a breakout at 11.8, I thought to share this idea. Crypto Short

Bitcoin at 6K - Fourth time and again Price-Volume Aren't in Sync

This is the fourth time bitcoin is touching the 6K and has developed a near 5800 bottom. The price had a free-fall from 8500. However, when it came down to the 6K support, it behaved like it is close to a gravitational pull. Instead, it slows down. Take a look at the price and volume actions. Especially, the OBV and PVT. Both hold a key when it comes to the reversal pattern recoginition. When every one is bearish, you need to look at some out-of-box tools or utilities that can help you in defining a position. When we touch the support 4th time, it simply means that the support is weak. However, this doesn't mean that a rally cannot begin. Every one expects the bitcoin to reach 2K so that it comes a good buy. Ask yourself, will you buy it? Most probably not. Here is a capture of some key divergences: Regular Bullish Divergence against RSI OBV - Hidden Bullish Divergence Regular Bullish Divergence against PVT With these divergences in-hand one should think about accumul...

Bitcoin: Eyeing a Reversal Confirmation

Bitcoin is on its way to confirm the reversal pattern. Here are the series of events that happened post the longest bearish trend (50-days long). June 23 was marked as swing zone based on Fibonacci Time Extension. The next day prints a Dragonfly Doji pattern, which is traditionally a bullish sign. Attempted a panic sell situation but the price couldn't free-fall. Instead, BTC gradually dropped below 6K. Further drop could only put the CMF or volume higher resulting in a strong bullish divergence. This was also notable on the momentum indicators such as RSI. Note that we have not see so many bullish divergences of RSI in case of BTC. We have seen two major bearish divergences near psychological levels (20k, 10k). While the Awesome Oscillator shows twin peaks with some buyers strength. Here is another daily chart with other indicators. Note the swing zone 21 and the follow-up Doji. Conclusion: It is clear that the reversal pattern might b...

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