Skip to main content

Bitcoin (March 18-30): Integrated Gann Fan Analysis & Trades



https://invst.ly/6-gn0

In this chart you can clearly see how the time & price are related when the fall happens in early Gann angles (1/8 to 1/2) & then the price pulls back as a bear flag & then takes time until it reaches the Gann 1/1 (45deg angle). That severs as a resistance and the price moves along this line until it completes the correction cycle i.e. ABC. Then the price breaks out and results in a swing i.e. bull run since it is over 45 degrees & chances are greater that BTC will either move sideways or do a bull run. Based on this, I decided to go long.


Trades

Here is a Gann Fan Chart for bitcoin that I recently used to do trading. I implemented this post March 6-9 decline since then the price action was clear and the first Elliott correction on Feb gains was already applied. The next expectation was whether the corrections such as B & C are underway or not. I attempted to trade those pullbacks but didn't gain so much. The major trades came into play when I found a breakout on Gann & my traditional technical analysis that the time-price actions are neutralizing & the breakout of March 18 was evident. Despite the risks such as Death Cross, Bearish Load & failure of 11700, I still considered that the swing of March 18 is going to be a bull run. So far this assumption is going very well & I enjoyed several long positions here, which have been annotated.

Fibonacci Support Levels:
  1. BTC supported on Fibonacci support level 23.6% (7300 area) on March 18 & bounced back.
  2. BTC got resistance around Fibonacci 50% level around March 21 & 22. Thus, it could not break the resistance & pulled back.
  3. At the time of writing this article, BTC again made a second attempt to break this 50% resistance around 8900-9100 region but it seems that it cannot do it so. Upon a failure of breakout & formation of a double top, short positions can be added.


Positions:

I will close my long positions if a double top above 9000 is formed and BTC fails to breakout. In that case, I will add a short upon a breakout of Gann Lines & Fibonacci levels typically I am looking around 8800-8700.

 Update 24/03/2018 (22:33 UTC)

BTC couldn't hold above Fib50% & formed a double top around 9k resistance zone. 5H majors (RSI, StochRSI, %R) are neutral. The price wasn't comprehensively overbought since it never reached 9177 (previous high).  Longs closed with gains. Very risky shorts added TP 8.3, 8.1, 7.9, 7.5 (SL 8800) supported by the price being below SMA26, Gann 2/1, and NE-SW support line.

While down the road I will be conscious about the kicks at 8550, 8350, n 8000 levels. Thus, I will be moving SLs up to manage the risks n lock the gains for traded BTCs.


----

I am publishing this chart since I know it is very risky to trade with Gann Fan & many people complain that the standards of stock markets do not apply in crypto. However, this is not true in my trading style & I have been successful in combing Gann angles & Elliott waves together while calibrating them with Fibonacci levels.

My conclusion is that it is mostly possible that one can trade effectively if he knows what he is doing with these technical analysis.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Bitcoin: The Golden Ratio

The price movement of BTC has several highs and lows. Timing the future is often unrealistic and many investors, who don't know math very well, stay away from a technical analysis. Often they totally ignore the power that such analysis may bring. Here is an example of BTC from Dec 2017 to March 2018. BTC is in fact following the golden ratio. If we would have known this before, we would be have been trading more effectively than we did in past. You can recreate such a map in your platform and then trace ahead the expected swings. I would advice to consider 5-10% error always due to news. As soon as this golden rule is broken like 15% error, you don't trade with this. While I am waiting for a breakout at 11.8, I thought to share this idea. Crypto Short
Post a Comment
Read more

Bitcoin at 6K - Fourth time and again Price-Volume Aren't in Sync

This is the fourth time bitcoin is touching the 6K and has developed a near 5800 bottom. The price had a free-fall from 8500. However, when it came down to the 6K support, it behaved like it is close to a gravitational pull. Instead, it slows down. Take a look at the price and volume actions. Especially, the OBV and PVT. Both hold a key when it comes to the reversal pattern recoginition. When every one is bearish, you need to look at some out-of-box tools or utilities that can help you in defining a position. When we touch the support 4th time, it simply means that the support is weak. However, this doesn't mean that a rally cannot begin. Every one expects the bitcoin to reach 2K so that it comes a good buy. Ask yourself, will you buy it? Most probably not. Here is a capture of some key divergences: Regular Bullish Divergence against RSI OBV - Hidden Bullish Divergence Regular Bullish Divergence against PVT With these divergences in-hand one should think about accumul...
Post a Comment
Read more

Bitcoin: Eyeing a Reversal Confirmation

Bitcoin is on its way to confirm the reversal pattern. Here are the series of events that happened post the longest bearish trend (50-days long). June 23 was marked as swing zone based on Fibonacci Time Extension. The next day prints a Dragonfly Doji pattern,   which is traditionally a bullish sign. Attempted a panic sell situation but the price couldn't free-fall. Instead, BTC gradually dropped below 6K. Further drop could only put the CMF or volume higher resulting in a strong bullish divergence. This was also notable on the momentum indicators such as RSI. Note that we have not see so many bullish divergences of RSI in case of BTC. We have seen two major bearish divergences near psychological levels (20k, 10k). While the Awesome Oscillator shows twin peaks with some buyers strength. Here is another daily chart with other indicators. Note the swing zone 21 and the follow-up Doji. Conclusion: It is clear that the reversal pattern might b...
Post a Comment
Read more