BitCoin: Reistance-Support (R-S) Junction

The R-S Junction

Bitcoin has seen several lower highs and lower lows during the continuation of the current bearish market since Dec 17. Future prediction is a pain in crypto market. However, we have seen some cases in past, which may assist in predicting the future of BTC. Here is another way to look at between ATH and ATL since Dec 17 and forecast the future.

I define the R-S junction as a point where the resistance and support meet together and a new deflection in trend happens.

Historical anchor points:

S1a - First major support level @5422
S1b - Second support level @9202

R1a - ATH1; First major resistance level @19888
R1a - ATH2; Second major resistance level @17285

The junction that has been seen between Feb 21-22 clearly shows a trend reversal to bearish market. Should the market set another long-term Bearish Trend, we need to see MA/EMA cross-over. The cross-over of Feb 21 clearly indicates a trend reversal and the establishment of a bullish cycle. Thus, two different stories.

Bearish or Bullish Retracement Problem

The arising question is

Are we just overlooking a long-term pullback from ATH 19k to 6k?

BTC is just dropping from its ATH. However, the swing happened this month on Feb 6, 2018. Should this swing continue the all time set trend i.e. bullish market, we need to look at long term parameters. Perhaps, the best we could do at this moment is to look at 4H charts and ignore 1D or 1W charts since they just show less amount of technical parameters to see the future.

To answer the above question, we need to know if the short-term (2months) bear market is ending, which is explained below.

Is Bearish Cycle Ending?

This is a supporting chart to illustrate a case that the bearish market is perhaps at the verge of its end. The MACD and Stoch-RSI are adjusted for a long-term position and entry point for the bull market. This chart clearly shows a cross over and a beginning of a new trend since Feb 03, 2018.

Conclusion

To sum-up, an R-S junction only defines a deflection point. At that point we may see a swing in price either up/down but that remains short-term vision since it is based on near past ATH or ATL. This observation must be backed up with SMA or Stoch-RSI as per trading period that you are looking for. The present case of BTC is all set to define a new consolidation phase with low trading margin and perhaps a termination of the on-going Bearish Trend.

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Bitcoin (March 18-30): Integrated Gann Fan Analysis & Trades

https://invst.ly/6-gn0 In this chart you can clearly see how the time & price are related when the fall happens in early Gann angles (1/8 to 1/2) & then the price pulls back as a bear flag & then takes time until it reaches the Gann 1/1 (45deg angle). That severs as a resistance and the price moves along this line until it completes the correction cycle i.e. ABC. Then the price breaks out and results in a swing i.e. bull run since it is over 45 degrees & chances are greater that BTC will either move sideways or do a bull run. Based on this, I decided to go long.

Timing a Bitcoin Event

Here are some screenshots for timing a bitcoin event: I used Fibonacci Time Zone to predict a price swing. As the time stretches, the prediction may go less certain since news, trends, and market holds change, a point where you throw away the old trend curve and place a new one as per new set trend. Note: Fibonacci time prediction is only used to locate a time with +/- relative error for a price swing. It doesn't tell what type of swing do you expect. That should be done by balancing this observation with other technical parameters. Proven Bitcoin Major Trend Reversal (1D) Here are my predictions for timing BTC swings. The image below is a capture of March 7 event where a major price swing may happen. See the subsequent chart for confirmation & what happens next. Tip: To look at these charts, follow the vertical blue lines, which point a major price swing around (+/-1 day). As the time progresses, the error increases. Minor Trend Reversal ...

Bitcoin Arrives at the Next Swing Zone (Oct 18): A Major Move with 6 Months Long Trend Ahead

Throughout the year, I have been following just one Fibonacci time zone prediction that worked very well. Whenever BTC arrived closer to these zones, something has to happen for some reasons: (a) Previous trend was losing steam (b) Extended cosolidation June 24 was the best example though when BTC closed below support (6K) & recovered in the following day. Thus, the swing zone prediction worked very well and the declining trend put a rally that gave significant profits. The rally failed an till Oct 18, the zone held the support & never closed above 6135 (on GDAX). If you see my previous analysis, whenever BTC lands on the support, I kept on finding evidences of volume/momentum divergences. What do we see now is that BTC holds the support with regular and hidden divergences against the volume and momentum indicators. Recent events, drop on Oct 11 to 6135 & breakout on Oct 15 of 6800 both turned fake. Here is a chart annotating the four fake drops, which held the ...

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