Crypto Short

BTC failed to hold above 6K. The lower high series continues, which makes a net channel down. If so, then where is the settlement price? I am looking for: Price adjustment between two successive ATHs i.e. Fibonacci level 0.886. Equal-height method also projects back to the price predicted by #1 Fib level. 2017 highs as future support for mid-term. The chart below annotates, the supports in red while the resistance in blue.

Since June 24 Doji / pinbar (actually on Bitfinex) was perhaps the decisive day followed by the engulfing move. Since then this support zone 6150-5800 remains solid and BTC mostly trades above despite two failed rallies forming a descending triangle. Current low volatility and price settling in a support zone 6150-6800 is an indication that most likely the rally will follow-up to put a Higher High and thus if the momentum fails, bears will have achieved enough momentum to break down the support. Given the momentum (Higher Higher and Higher Lows) continue, the rally will continue and BTC may test 10K, 13 and ultimately 20K in coming months.

Throughout the year, I have been following just one Fibonacci time zone prediction that worked very well. Whenever BTC arrived closer to these zones, something has to happen for some reasons: (a) Previous trend was losing steam (b) Extended cosolidation June 24 was the best example though when BTC closed below support (6K) & recovered in the following day. Thus, the swing zone prediction worked very well and the declining trend put a rally that gave significant profits. The rally failed an till Oct 18, the zone held the support & never closed above 6135 (on GDAX). If you see my previous analysis, whenever BTC lands on the support, I kept on finding evidences of volume/momentum divergences. What do we see now is that BTC holds the support with regular and hidden divergences against the volume and momentum indicators. Recent events, drop on Oct 11 to 6135 & breakout on Oct 15 of 6800 both turned fake. Here is a chart annotating the four fake drops, which held the ...

Klinger Oscillator (KO) is perhaps one of those oscillators in trading that will compensate the price-volume trend. Although there is a PVT (Price-volume Trend) but KO is an add-on feature. For Bitcoin, you can use this as well but for now I am going to put a special case for Q4-2018 here. BTC is at the verge of breaking the bearish descending triangle (Lower Highs and a flat bottom). However, KO tells a different story. In the chart below you find these trends: Jan to Sep a lower high setup - BEARISH Jan to Sep a lower low setup - BEARISH Jan to Jun a higher low setup on KO Indicator, confirming a regular bullish divergence . Jun to mid Aug a hidden bullish divergence, confirming a regular bullish divergence. Failed rally ahead but KO continues the bullish momentum i.e. higher lows while approaching the end of triangle.  What will happen next? It is indicated here in my post (investing.com). Crypto Short: We enter in Q4 with a solid floor defined by descending...

General When it comes to a bubble, the concept of support is not traditional as we understand. To me the support develops in stages. Before you understand the support, recall the following definitions: Support Level: It is a single price level at which level demand is expected. Support zone:  It is a price range that ultimately becomes a demand zone. Stage-I (Near Parabolic Rise): A highly volatile environment, where the price may briefly hit the demand zone. Stage-II (Confirmed Decline): It is a second phase when the price makes lower highs with reducing volatility. Price may still fluctuate at weekly ATR on daily basis.  Stage-III (Reduced Decline Acceleration): Extremely reduced volatility that is often historical. Less trading interest, and very low volumes. This stage usually takes time such as months or years. Despite knowing these things, you may not assume that a Price-X is a support. Usually at Stage-III price may still decline a bit b...

Today, I am going to explain one of the simplest thing in trading that we often forget. The question is why 6K for Bitcoin , why not 7K or 4K or 2K or 1K? You may have your answer but do you have any explanation to that. Perhaps, yes or maybe not. Hang-on, we need something that you can tell from the data without drawing so many lines. Here comes a dirty chart, with messy lines and one simple explanation. Below this chart, I explain two mindsets, first the dirty trader mindset, and second, the simpler investor's thinking. A Trader's Explanation An average crypto trader trades a few bitcoins. He has to draw all small scale features on a chart to trade a trend. For instance on this chart you see a simple Fibonacci fan in a bear market. Each high developed a peak on a fan and followed the fan such that there are lower lows, a bear market. Then the next lower high, which is followed by subsequent lower lows until July 2018. But see what happens next, still a bear market ...

6000 - The Provisional Bottom Bitcoin touched the bottom three times, and on the fourth time, things were different: 1) Price volume were not in sync . 2) Correlation between  2014 and 2018 told where should be the bottom. If 6K bottom is real, all we need is to see: Confirmations Daily to close above 6K on the next fall, which happened on Aug 10, 2018, when the PVT was diverging from the price. (a) Confirmation of a close above 6K (b) Confirmation of Price volume divergence - rally ahead. (see the figure a). Bitcoin to maintain the higher low setup and should stay above the weekly close i.e. 6200. See the image below, which outlines a correlation between 2014-15 and 2018 in search of bottom. Notice that the 2014-15 crash defines a near double bottom event (Weekly Close Line), which was confirmed upon next corrections. It is expected that a re-test of 6200-6600 to occur in coming weeks, and if that level is held, BTC will enter in a bull ...

Many traders will find abundant similarities between two crashes and may say that the history will repeat itself. However, we as a trader mostly overlook things. Here is another important aspect that we have overlooked. Bitcoin first drop during high volatility days defined the support as indicated in red ellipse. This held true in 2014 and was never broken. This also holds true to-date as 6K support was briefly touched but was never broken for weeks. Bitcoin rebounded at least three times from this support and this will be the fourth time if it does again. If this analysis or view is true, then 6K is our final bottom.

This is the fourth time bitcoin is touching the 6K and has developed a near 5800 bottom. The price had a free-fall from 8500. However, when it came down to the 6K support, it behaved like it is close to a gravitational pull. Instead, it slows down. Take a look at the price and volume actions. Especially, the OBV and PVT. Both hold a key when it comes to the reversal pattern recoginition. When every one is bearish, you need to look at some out-of-box tools or utilities that can help you in defining a position. When we touch the support 4th time, it simply means that the support is weak. However, this doesn't mean that a rally cannot begin. Every one expects the bitcoin to reach 2K so that it comes a good buy. Ask yourself, will you buy it? Most probably not. Here is a capture of some key divergences: Regular Bullish Divergence against RSI OBV - Hidden Bullish Divergence Regular Bullish Divergence against PVT With these divergences in-hand one should think about accumul...

If you don't know how to get in and out of a trade when you trade on daily, then try this approach. That is very effective in stock market as well as in crypto according to my experience. Here is a running example of bitcoin, where it is long since 6000 since the RSI9 is above the RSI14. The exit plan is when RSI9 falls on or below the RSI14. If RSI9 stretches down further i.e. below 46, it is a short opportunity. Update: July 24, 2018 Here we are again, back with this trade. See yourself how good the reversal was based on this.

Bitcoin is on its way to confirm the reversal pattern. Here are the series of events that happened post the longest bearish trend (50-days long). June 23 was marked as swing zone based on Fibonacci Time Extension. The next day prints a Dragonfly Doji pattern,   which is traditionally a bullish sign. Attempted a panic sell situation but the price couldn't free-fall. Instead, BTC gradually dropped below 6K. Further drop could only put the CMF or volume higher resulting in a strong bullish divergence. This was also notable on the momentum indicators such as RSI. Note that we have not see so many bullish divergences of RSI in case of BTC. We have seen two major bearish divergences near psychological levels (20k, 10k). While the Awesome Oscillator shows twin peaks with some buyers strength. Here is another daily chart with other indicators. Note the swing zone 21 and the follow-up Doji. Conclusion: It is clear that the reversal pattern might b...

Here is a general look of BTC after healthy corrections in early 2018. Several important points: BTC is currently trading near Fib0.618 and was previously bottomed (Provisinally) near 6000 (Fib0.786). In Q4 2017, BTC and ADL (Accumulation Distribution Line) were following the same up-trend. Since the price divergence (end Dec / Early Jan), ADL kept on accumulating during the entire decline period. At present, 50-days MA (Moving Average) curve has been flattened close to 100-days MA suggesting a change in trend is approaching. This is the reason why I am more bullish overall and will keep holding my positions by accumulating in this range (7200 - 9200). My further perspectives & daily updates are posted on: 1) Investing.com 2) TradingView.com

Here is my review in search of finding the BTC bottom. Hopefully, you will find the hidden answers after reading my post. Verdict Whenever there is a crash, there are two supported levels that I use: Fibonacci Level 0.786 / 78.6% relative to maximum low i.e. either $0 or $1 or around that. This level is theoretical in cryptocurrency i.e. 0.889 / 89%. ------------------------------------------------- Bitcoin A very important question in the current descending market trend of Bitcoin, which is trading around 6900 at the time of writing this article. To understand this, one has to know two fundamental levels in BTC crash: 1. What is the maximum level that BTC can be re-traced? 2. What is the maximum decline level that BTC has seen so far relative to the first question? To answer these, one has to stay away from relative price levels. For instance, if I consider September (2017) price as a bottom assuming it will never be breached in future, I will always be wrong si...

A better updated chart with SMA curves since the chart below can be confusing as it uses MAC Channel. DASH's DEATH CROSS has already happened and is eyeing the potential demand zone around $200 for investments......nnnhttps://invst.ly/70yox...For the time being it looks like an asset which isn't easy to trade. If it doesn't hold above this support (dashed red line), it is very likely to test the underlying one where potential demand may bring it back to golden cross .   I don't anticipate this to recover soon but given crypto-world, it may show some signs recovery later this year since much is dependent on BTC and the money circulates through trading. https://invst.ly/70yox

https://invst.ly/6-gn0 In this chart you can clearly see how the time & price are related when the fall happens in early Gann angles (1/8 to 1/2) & then the price pulls back as a bear flag & then takes time until it reaches the Gann 1/1 (45deg angle). That severs as a resistance and the price moves along this line until it completes the correction cycle i.e. ABC. Then the price breaks out and results in a swing i.e. bull run since it is over 45 degrees & chances are greater that BTC will either move sideways or do a bull run. Based on this, I decided to go long.

Bitcoin market has a huge confusion in defining the market trend. Every dip puts people think that we are going down to zero and every rise makes them think that we are going to touch a new ATH. A part from the underlying value, news and sentiments, we need to dig deeper into the historical data to stress on present and future. Here are some numbers that will be validated in near future, or at least in this summer to see the market orientation. I hope this will set a new way of thinking and addressing the problems to non-technical people, investors and readers. Figure: Elliott waves are subjective lines that vary from person to person and notions/wave counting is also a trivial solution. The intention of this illustration is to show case the scenarios and possibilities together in one sketch that have been around & a clear discrimination is felt. Here are two schools: A downtrend since Dec 17, 2017  is continuing till today & all pullbacks that we have se...

Bitcoin lost its breath and while approaching the predicted swing level (Fib Time Extension #13 on an hourly chart), its price stages at exactly Fib 0.5 level confirming the symmetric triangle! To illustrate better, a special fib retracement has been inserted right at the end of the triangle. The symmetric triangle has been 60% exhausted (see the vertical bars above the triangle), plus nearing the vertical line i.e. Fib Time Zone (13) prediction for a possible breakout. Following couple of hours results in this chart! https://invst.ly/6x5jn

Respecting the earlier formed primary channel, bitcoin refrains from breaching the key support level around 8200 i.e. Nov 20-23, 2017. In fact, the same level is now a Fibonacci level (0.382). This bullish looking swing was predicted around March 9 through Fibonacci Time Zone Extension and it worked as a first bottom above the key support. This bullish move sets another tone by breaching through the earlier lower high i.e. 9506. Whether bitcoin is heading towards 11700 or not, I am already long. Will take profits throughout this journey just to lock them! Bitcoin: Continues the Primary February Channel by cryptoshort on TradingView.com Follow Trading View Chart Update: March 12, 2018(10:10 UTC)  The engulfing bullish reversal & breakouts continues after forming a descending broadening wedge, which is typically a bullish reversal sign. Thus, my longs remain open & will progressively take-profits at subsequent resistance levels.  ...

Here are some screenshots for timing a bitcoin event: I used Fibonacci Time Zone to predict a price swing. As the time stretches, the prediction may go less certain since news, trends, and market holds change, a point where you throw away the old trend curve and place a new one as per new set trend. Note:  Fibonacci time prediction is only used to locate a time with +/- relative error for a price swing. It doesn't tell what type of swing do you expect. That should be done by balancing  this observation with other technical parameters. Proven Bitcoin Major Trend Reversal (1D) Here are my predictions for timing BTC swings. The image below is a capture of March 7 event where a major price swing may happen. See the subsequent chart for confirmation & what happens next. Tip: To look at these charts, follow the vertical blue lines, which point a major price swing around (+/-1 day). As the time progresses, the error increases. Minor Trend Reversal ...