Crypto Short

General When it comes to a bubble, the concept of support is not traditional as we understand. To me the support develops in stages. Before you understand the support, recall the following definitions: Support Level: It is a single price level at which level demand is expected. Support zone:  It is a price range that ultimately becomes a demand zone. Stage-I (Near Parabolic Rise): A highly volatile environment, where the price may briefly hit the demand zone. Stage-II (Confirmed Decline): It is a second phase when the price makes lower highs with reducing volatility. Price may still fluctuate at weekly ATR on daily basis.  Stage-III (Reduced Decline Acceleration): Extremely reduced volatility that is often historical. Less trading interest, and very low volumes. This stage usually takes time such as months or years. Despite knowing these things, you may not assume that a Price-X is a support. Usually at Stage-III price may still decline a bit b...

Today, I am going to explain one of the simplest thing in trading that we often forget. The question is why 6K for Bitcoin , why not 7K or 4K or 2K or 1K? You may have your answer but do you have any explanation to that. Perhaps, yes or maybe not. Hang-on, we need something that you can tell from the data without drawing so many lines. Here comes a dirty chart, with messy lines and one simple explanation. Below this chart, I explain two mindsets, first the dirty trader mindset, and second, the simpler investor's thinking. A Trader's Explanation An average crypto trader trades a few bitcoins. He has to draw all small scale features on a chart to trade a trend. For instance on this chart you see a simple Fibonacci fan in a bear market. Each high developed a peak on a fan and followed the fan such that there are lower lows, a bear market. Then the next lower high, which is followed by subsequent lower lows until July 2018. But see what happens next, still a bear market ...

6000 - The Provisional Bottom Bitcoin touched the bottom three times, and on the fourth time, things were different: 1) Price volume were not in sync . 2) Correlation between  2014 and 2018 told where should be the bottom. If 6K bottom is real, all we need is to see: Confirmations Daily to close above 6K on the next fall, which happened on Aug 10, 2018, when the PVT was diverging from the price. (a) Confirmation of a close above 6K (b) Confirmation of Price volume divergence - rally ahead. (see the figure a). Bitcoin to maintain the higher low setup and should stay above the weekly close i.e. 6200. See the image below, which outlines a correlation between 2014-15 and 2018 in search of bottom. Notice that the 2014-15 crash defines a near double bottom event (Weekly Close Line), which was confirmed upon next corrections. It is expected that a re-test of 6200-6600 to occur in coming weeks, and if that level is held, BTC will enter in a bull ...